Understanding Cancer Survival Statistics

Maybe you were just given a cancer diagnosis. Maybe you are searching for what to expect. Either way, you may be tempted to look up a "survival rate" right away. Before you do, it helps to know what that number is, and what it is not.

A cancer survival statistic, like a "5-year relative survival rate," describes a large group of people. Those people were diagnosed with a certain cancer years ago. Researchers followed that group and recorded how many were still alive 5 years later, compared with people who do not have cancer. The result is a group-level measurement. It is not a prediction about any one person, including you.

This page explains how to read these numbers well. It also links to stage-by-stage survival data for 22 cancer types, based on the National Cancer Institute's SEER program.

Relative survival compares two groups over the same stretch of time. One group has a specific cancer. The other group is the same age and sex, but does not have that cancer. Say a cancer's 5-year relative survival rate is 90%. That means people with that cancer were, as a group, about 90% as likely to be alive 5 years later as people without it.

This is different from "observed survival," which simply counts who is alive, whatever the cause of death. Relative survival tries to isolate the effect of the cancer itself. SEER describes it as an estimate of the percentage of patients expected to survive the effects of their cancer.

"5 years" is not a life expectancy or a deadline. It is the time period most often reported. NCI says statistics are based on large groups of people and cannot be used to predict exactly what will happen to you.

Most cancer statistics pages, including SEER's, publish two kinds of number. One is an "all stages combined" figure. The others are separate figures for localized, regional, and distant disease.

• Localized means the cancer is found only in the organ where it started.
• Regional means it has spread to nearby tissue or lymph nodes.
• Distant means it has spread to organs or tissues far from where it started; this is also called metastatic disease.

An all-stages number blends everyone in these groups together. NCI lists stage as a key factor in prognosis, so ask your care team which number fits your situation. Stage is not the only factor. Grade, tumor traits, age, prior health and treatment response also matter.

NCI says it takes years to see the benefit of new treatments and ways of finding cancer. The statistics your doctor uses may not be based on treatments being used today. Ask your care team what has changed since the data was collected.

A published statistic describes a group. NCI lists these factors that affect prognosis:

• Cancer type and where it is.
• Stage. The size of the cancer and whether it has spread.
• Grade. How abnormal the cancer cells look and how fast they grow.
• Cell traits. Genetic changes or hormone status of the tumor.
• Age and prior health.
• How the cancer responds to treatment.

Statistics can be a useful starting point for a conversation. They work best alongside your care team's knowledge of your own situation. It can help to:

• Ask which number fits your stage and situation.
• Ask what has changed in treatment since the data was collected.
• Ask how your own test results, biomarkers, and health affect the general number.
• Decide together how much detail feels useful to you right now. Some people want every number. Others prefer the short version. Both are reasonable.

Looking up survival numbers can bring up fear, grief, or a flood of other feelings. That can happen even when the numbers are reassuring. The reaction is common and understandable. It does not mean you are coping "wrong." Cancer Anxiety and Uncertainty has more on coping with fear and uncertainty during cancer. It is also worth telling your care team how you're feeling, not just what you want to know.

Want a more data-dense, statistics-first version of the same topic? What a Five-Year Cancer Survival Rate Actually Means gives SEER's exact stage-by-stage figures for breast and pancreatic cancer, and shows how conditional survival changes over time.

Each page below explains SEER's 5-year relative survival data for one cancer type. Where a stage breakdown is meaningful, the page shows it. All of them use the same framing as this page.

• Breast cancer
• Lung cancer
• Colorectal cancer
• Prostate cancer
• Melanoma
• Bladder cancer
• Kidney cancer
• Uterine (endometrial) cancer
• Thyroid cancer
• Pancreatic cancer
• Liver cancer
• Stomach cancer
• Cervical cancer
• Ovarian cancer
• Esophageal cancer
• Testicular cancer
• Head and neck cancer
• Brain tumors
• Multiple myeloma
• Leukemia
• Lymphoma
• Mesothelioma

• National Cancer Institute — Understanding Cancer Prognosis
• National Cancer Institute SEER — Cancer Stat Facts
• National Cancer Institute SEER — Survival Statistics