Why Cancer Rates Are Rising in Adults Under 50: A Calm Look at Early-Onset Cancer

The headline, and the study behind it

"Early-onset cancer" is not a disease. It is a description: cancer diagnosed before age 50.

In May 2025, NIH researchers published a careful look at whether it is really rising. The paper appeared in Cancer Discovery. They tracked new cases and deaths for 33 cancer types. New-case data ran from 2010 to 2019 and came from the CDC's United States Cancer Statistics database, which covers the whole country. Death data ran from 2010 to 2022. They split the work into six age bands, three under 50 and three over.

The answer is more interesting than either version you have probably read.

What actually went up

Incidence rose for 14 of the 33 cancer types in at least one younger age group.

Nine of those 14 also rose in at least one older group. They were female breast, colorectal, kidney, testicular, uterine and pancreatic cancer, plus three types of lymphoma. That matters. A rise at every age is less likely to be about being young.

Five types rose only in a younger group and in no older one. They were melanoma, cervical cancer, stomach cancer, myeloma, and cancer of the bones and joints.

What went down

This is the part that rarely makes it into a headline.

Nineteen other cancer types fell among people under 50. Lung and prostate cancer were among them. So the total rate of all cancers did not rise, in either younger or older groups. Nor did the overall cancer death rate.

Death rates did not rise in the younger groups for most of these cancers. But the researchers did find rising colorectal and uterine cancer deaths at younger ages. Those are the findings worth taking seriously.

How large is the increase, in people

Percentages are easy to misread, so the researchers turned them into counts. They asked how many extra people were diagnosed under 50 in 2019, against what the 2010 rates would have predicted.

• Female breast cancer: about 4,800 additional cases
• Colorectal cancer: about 2,100
• Kidney cancer: about 1,800
• Uterine cancer: about 1,200
• Pancreatic cancer: about 500

Those first four made up more than 80% of the extra cases in 2019. Real numbers, in a country of over 330 million people. Serious, and not a wave.

Why it is happening

Nobody knows, and the lead investigator said so.

Meredith Shiels of NCI led the study. She called it a starting point for working out which cancers are rising under 50. The causes, she said, are likely to differ by cancer. Risk factors may be reaching younger people. Screening and detection have changed. So has the way cancers are diagnosed and coded.

That last point deserves attention. Some of a rise can come from looking harder, not from more disease. Researchers have named rising obesity as one candidate. NCI's own coverage adds diet, physical activity, the gut microbiome, environmental exposures and inherited genes. None of it is settled. Our page on cancer risk factors covers what is established.

What has already changed

One thing has moved from research into practice. The US Preventive Services Task Force now advises colorectal screening for adults aged 45 to 49. It is a grade B recommendation. Screening used to start at 50.

That is the direct consequence of the colorectal trend. Our guide to colorectal cancer screening covers the test options.

For context on the disease itself: the American Cancer Society forecast on SEER's page gives 158,850 new US colorectal cancer cases and 55,230 deaths in 2026. Five-year relative survival across all stages, for 2016 to 2022, is 65.4%. Localized disease carries 91.3%. Regional carries 75.2%, and distant 16.9%. Only 34% of cases are found while localized. Those are group figures over past years. They describe no one person. Our page on colorectal cancer has more.

When to get checked

Being under 50 is not a reason to brush off a symptom. It is not a reason to wait, either. These deserve an appointment when they last beyond three weeks, at any age:

• Blood in stool, or a change in bowel habits lasting more than three weeks
• Unexplained weight loss of more than 5% of body weight in six months
• Any vaginal bleeding after menopause, or bleeding between periods
• A new breast lump, skin dimpling, or nipple discharge with blood
• A new lump anywhere that is hard, fixed or growing
• Blood in the urine, even once
• Unexplained iron-deficiency anemia found on a blood test
• Persistent abdominal pain or bloating

Does cancer run in your family, especially colorectal or breast cancer found young? Genetic counseling is a fair thing to ask about.

What this does and doesn't change

• The overall cancer rate under 50 did not rise. Fourteen types went up, 19 went down, and the total held steady.
• Cancer remains far more common in older adults. A percentage rise in a small absolute number is still a small absolute number.
• Some of the rise may reflect better detection or changed coding rather than more disease. The researchers say so directly.
• Rising colorectal and uterine death rates at younger ages are the clearest signal that something real is going on. They are why the screening age moved.
• This is a description of population trends. It says nothing about the risk facing any individual reader.

Sources

• NCI, NIH study investigates trends in early-onset cancers — https://www.cancer.gov/news-events/press-releases/2025/early-onset-cancer-rates
• NCI, Why Is Early-Onset Cancer On the Rise? — https://www.cancer.gov/news-events/cancer-currents-blog/2025/early-onset-cancer-research-environment-genetics-support
• USPSTF, Colorectal Cancer: Screening — https://www.uspreventiveservicestaskforce.org/uspstf/recommendation/colorectal-cancer-screening
• NCI PDQ, Colorectal Cancer Screening (Patient Version) — https://www.cancer.gov/types/colorectal/patient/colorectal-screening-pdq
• SEER Cancer Stat Facts, Colorectal Cancer — https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/colorect.html

How this article was prepared

An AI-assisted editorial system helped prepare this page. No named medical reviewer has reviewed it unless one is listed.

The National Cancer Information Foundation publishes Cancer Explained. This page is for learning. It is not medical advice and does not suggest a test or treatment.

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