U.S. Smoking at Historic Lows: What It Means for Cancer

What people see in the news

Reports based on federal survey data note that the U.S. adult cigarette smoking rate has dropped below 10% for the first time on record — roughly 9.9% of adults in 2024, down from a peak above 42% in the 1960s. It's a milestone with real consequences for cancer.

What it actually means

Why does smoking matter so much for cancer? According to the National Cancer Institute, cigarette smoking is the leading cause of premature, preventable death in the United States, and about 36% of those premature deaths are from cancer. NCI notes that smoking causes cancers of the lung, esophagus, larynx, mouth, throat, kidney, bladder, liver, pancreas, stomach, cervix, colon, and rectum, as well as acute myeloid leukemia. Because tobacco drives so many cancers, fewer smokers means fewer of these cancers over time.

The benefits of quitting are also striking. NCI states that regardless of their age, smokers can substantially reduce their risk of disease, including cancer, by quitting. The falling smoking rate is one of the reasons cited by the American Cancer Society for the long decline in overall U.S. cancer death rates.

There's a lag, though. Because lung and other tobacco-related cancers can take decades to develop, today's lower smoking rates will keep paying off in reduced cancer for years to come — while some of the harm from past smoking is still working its way through.

What this does and doesn't change

• Fewer smokers is genuinely good news for cancer prevention, and a major public-health achievement.
• The decline is uneven, and smoking still causes a large share of cancer deaths. Progress isn't the same as "solved."
• Other tobacco and nicotine products haven't followed the same path. E-cigarette use has held roughly steady in recent surveys, and the long-term cancer effects of some newer products are still being studied.
• Quitting helps at any age. NCI is clear that it's never too late to lower your risk.

If you smoke and want to stop, our guide to quitting smoking is a good starting point, and our free screening check-up tool can help you check whether lung cancer screening applies to you.

Questions to ask a healthcare team

• What's the best way for me to quit, and what support is available?
• Given my smoking history, should I be screened for lung cancer?
• How quickly does quitting lower my cancer risk?
• Are there other tobacco or nicotine products I should be cautious about?

A record-low smoking rate is one of the great cancer-prevention stories of our time. Free, plain-language cancer education helps more people understand why it matters and how quitting helps.